09: Predictability
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Hauptschule
Seminar
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in englischer SpracheWe all want to know the future so that we can make good decisions. Hence there is a big demand for forecasts. But is it always possible to obtain a valid forecast? We examine predictability from mathematical and empirical perspectives. Lenny Smith’s central interest is in determining the relevant measurements in a data rich environment, constructing nonlinear models and evaluating the results. Kesten Green will describe the Forecasting Principles Project. He will discuss the Seer-sucker theory and unsettling findings on predictability as they relate to technology, conflicts, the natural world, and climate.
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Dr. Kesten GREEN
Senior Research Fellow, Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University, Melbourne
| 1981-1982 | Department of Economics at Victoria University of Wellington |
| 1982-1985 | Founder and Director of the publisher of Bettor Informed, a computerised horse-racing information magazine based on assessment of probabilities under different conditions |
| 1985-1994 | Founder and Director of Infometrics Limited, a leading New Zealand economic forecasting and consulting house |
| 1994-1995 | Founder and Managing Director of Pisé Blocks Limited, a manufacturer of pressed earth blocks for construction |
| since 1995 | Founder and Managing Director of Decision Research Ltd, which provides forecasts, programme evaluations, and surveys, as well as advice on forecasting, research, and management decision making |
| 2000-2001 | Senior Research Fellow, Victoria Management School, Victoria University of Wellington |
| 2004 | Visiting Senior Lecturer, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University |
| since 2005 | Senior Research Fellow, Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University |
Ph.D. Leonard A. SMITH
Director, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, London
| Raised in Florida, receiving his Bachelors degree, with Honours, in "Physics, Mathematics and Computer Science" from the University of Florida and his MA, MPhil and Ph.D. in Physics from Columbia University (USA). Since 1992 he has been a Senior Research Fellow (Mathematics) at Pembroke College Oxford, working in the Oxford Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (OCIAM). He became a Professor of Statistics (Research), at the London School of Economics (LSE) in October 2004, where he is Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series. His research interests focus on dynamical systems and predictability, with examples ranging from mathematical systems and laboratory experiments to weather and climate, each of which are discussed in his recently published book "A very short introduction to chaos" from OUP. |
